In a Monday assembly, Mr. Erdogan and Charles Michel, the president of the European Council, agreed to give attention to migration and refugees, financial hyperlinks and the prospect of opening up visa-free journey to the E.U. for Turks, a senior E.U. official stated. The official, who spoke on the situation of anonymity to transient reporters, described the assembly as a change to a extra constructive tone.
Turkey is formally a candidate for membership within the European Union, a standing it has held for 20 years. The method was virtually frozen in 2018, cementing a form of frenemy standing between the bloc and its neighbor to the east. The 2 are deeply related, however the relationship between them has been strained.
Most E.U. international locations think about Turkey’s E.U. accession bid to be lifeless — however they haven’t pushed to make that official out of concern that that might additional alienate Mr. Erdogan and make enhancements on key coverage areas reminiscent of vitality cooperation and migration more durable. Here’s a take a look at the historical past of Turkey’s E.U. bid and the place it stands now.
Why has Turkey’s candidacy been frozen?
Turkey utilized to change into a member of the then-smaller European Union in 1987; it was granted candidate standing in 1999 and started negotiations to hitch in 2005. Talks for E.U. accession are usually prolonged, on common lasting about 10 years. Within the case of Turkey they’ve formally been occurring for 18 years, though they’ve been virtually suspended for 5 of these.
Negotiations are organized in chapters — or coverage areas — through which the candidate nation tries to fulfill E.U. legal guidelines and requirements, normally via robust overhauls.
Membership talks hinge on a set of ideas, generally known as the Copenhagen political standards, reminiscent of respect for human rights, a well-functioning democracy and establishments, and the rule of legislation assured via free and unbiased courts. These are seen because the cornerstones for membership within the membership.
The E.U. suspended accession talks with Turkey in 2018, citing the nation’s lack of progress on human rights and the rule of legislation. That got here after Mr. Erdogan’s management took an much more authoritarian flip in response to a failed coup try in 2016, with 1000’s of public employees fired and a whole bunch of organizations closed.
So can Turkey’s E.U. bid be resurrected?
E.U. diplomats imagine Turkey is very unlikely to hitch the E.U. anytime quickly, if ever, saying the nation’s requirements on the rule of legislation and respect for human rights have worsened lately.
Turkey’s hostile relations with its neighbors Greece and Cyprus, each E.U. members, are one other main downside. Whereas each international locations are NATO members, Turkish officers, together with Mr. Erdogan himself, steadily query their widespread borders and say Turkey is entitled to extra territory, to Greece’s outrage.
Turkey additionally maintains management and troops within the northern a part of the island of Cyprus — which it invaded in 1974, claiming it was intervening to guard a Turkish-speaking minority. The worldwide group doesn’t acknowledge its administration there, and Turkey doesn’t acknowledge the Republic of Cyprus, an E.U. and United Nations member that governs the southern two-thirds of the island.
Efforts to resolve the Cyprus query, one of many world’s most intractable frozen conflicts, have stalled after a number of makes an attempt. To be let into the E.U., and even to make real progress in that route, Turkey would doubtless have to acknowledge the Republic of Cyprus.
However what can be evident is that the E.U. not has any urge for food to increase eastward. Letting Turkey be a part of would imply integrating a big Muslim nation into the bloc and shifting its exterior borders to Syria, Iran and Iraq.
What might occur subsequent?
Consultants say that the present framework of the E.U.-Turkey relationship, which continues to be centered on Turkey’s candidacy, creates false expectations and lets each side down, arguing that it will be higher to create a brand new sort of particular relationship between the bloc and its neighbor.
However the E.U. and Turkey have their causes for sticking to the present framework. E.U. diplomats who see Turkey as key to managing migration and different main coverage challenges imagine that even when the method by no means results in full accession, it may be a helpful path, tethering Ankara to Brussels and offering a construction for talks.
If solely they’d speak!
What is predicted to occur subsequent is a re-engagement, particularly by way of public communication, between the bloc and Turkey. The E.U. will produce a report about the way forward for the connection, the senior E.U. official stated.
The officers stated there have been no illusions about how tough some components of the bloc’s relationship with Turkey are, however the assembly nonetheless felt like a second of resetting the tone towards the extra constructive.
A change of tack in E.U.-Turkey relations would assist Mr. Erdogan say that he improved Turkey’s relations with the E.U., whereas enabling the E.U. to help NATO unity by serving to Sweden’s accession, aiding its overriding aim of backing Ukraine in opposition to Russia’s aggression.